Consultancy: Rapid Attribution Analysis – Tourism Sector
Consultancy: Rapid Attribution Analysis – Tourism Sector CONTEXT OF THE ASSIGNMENT Zambia’s Tourism Sector has been heavily hit by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The impact of the pandemic has been strongly felt by the Small and Medium Entreprises (SMEs) which dominate the country’s tourism landscape and employs a large number of women. Many tourism businesses are now bracing for an economic fallout that may see large numbers of people losing their jobs and livelihoods. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has warned that the COVID-19 pandemic could cut 50 million jobs worldwide in the travel and tourism industry. Zambia, like many other countries with a thriving tourism sector, has seen its number of international visitors decline sharply. According to the International Growth Centre (IGC), the first three months of 2020 saw a drop of over 14,000 international visitors coming into Zambia. A survey by the IGC of members of the Eco-Tourism Association of Zambia (ETAZ) suggests that Zambia’s safari tourism and allied sectors such as Airlines and Charters would suffer a loss in income of USD100 million in 2020. Out of the numerous lodges and camps located in Zambia, 165 have shut down and 165 tourism businesses in Livingstone and Zambia’s protected areas face bankruptcy. Over 7000 jobs are likely to be lost. In order to respond to the impact of COVID-19, Prospero conducted a stakeholder analysis and consultation on the impact of the pandemic on businesses and job sustainability. As a response to the effects of COVID-19, Prospero developed grant facilities to support businesses’ ability to respond to the effects of COVID-19 while sustaining jobs. The Small Business Resilience (SBR) grant facility in particular was open to any private sector or not-for-profit organization with an objective to support business resilience in terms of labour force productivity and essential working capital needs. The grant facility also aimed to make significant contribution to job preservation and to allow for the continued meaningful productivity of employees. The COVID-19 grant facilities are short to medium term in nature and are rapidly being implemented to have near-immediate results and impact on grantees and employees. Verified data and projections on jobs sustained indicates that Prospero’s partners have sustained and preserved numerous jobs. Prospero Zambia seeks to engage a consultant(s) to conduct a rapid attribution analysis to understand whether the reported results, particularly the jobs preserved are as a result of the support provided to grantees. The consultant is expected to use a quasi-experimental method of developing a counterfactual that could include using non-successful applicants as a comparison group. Prospero will seek to construct an evidence-based case for ‘plausible attribution’ to a degree that would convince a reasonable but sceptical observer. Qualitative methods will be also be used to ensure that the methodology is not dominated by self-reported data from surveys, baseline and reports from grantees. OBJECTIVES OF THE ASSIGNMENT The primary objectives of the assignment are to:** estimate the counterfactual (i.e., what would have happened in the absence of the intervention, compared to the observed situation). This addresses the question as to whether the Prospero grantees would have preserved jobs without support from Prospero. The counterfactual approach involves developing an estimate of what would have happened in the absence of an intervention, and comparing this to what has been observed in the presence of the intervention. This approach requires the use of a control group or comparison group, non-successful applicants or those that did not apply are possible comparison groups. assess whether and to what extent jobs would have been preserved without the intervention. For example, a business gaining access to the SBR grant facility may have remained operational and kept all staff regardless of the grant facility. SCOPE OF WORK The exact scope of work will include the following, among others: Undertaking a desk review of recently compiled studies and assessments of the impact of COVID-19 on jobs in the Tourism Sector. Review the causal pathway for the achievement of results and compare to the programme’s current theory of change and strategy. Estimate as much as possible Prospero’s and grantee’s contribution to observed result, by quantifying the proportion of contribution (See Attribution-Contribution scale by Jennifer Cohen, https://ift.tt/2Fp8Dmv). Document the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on jobs in the Tourism Sector. Interview key tourism stakeholders including tour operators, hotels and safari lodge owners and representatives of key government ministries and agencies. Assess the extent to which Prospero’s COVID-19 interventions have contributed to the preservation of jobs. Assess and estimate the counterfactual to determine what would have happened had Prospero not provided grants. Highlight the job safeguarding measure and COVID-19 coping measure that have been implanted by businesses in the tourism sectors. DELIVERABLES Inception report and workplan Draft report Final study report REQUIRED/DESIRABLE EXPERIENCE Strong background in Economics, statistics or related analytical discipline. Knowledge of performance measurement and attribution calculation methodologies Demonstrated work experience as a research economist or policy analyst or an evaluator in a public or private sector organisation or donor-funded programme. Strong qualitative and quantitative analytical skills with the ability to draw reasonable inferences and quantify qualitative data where relevant Previous working experience conducting similar assessments. Familiarity of private sector development and its impact on job creation and sustainability Demonstrated experience in preparing and presenting analytical evidence in a compelling manner. How to apply PROPOSAL SUBMISSION GUIDELINES Please apply by emailing your CV(s) (not exceeding 3 pages) and a technical/financial proposal (5 pages maximum) outlining the methodology to be used, number of days input, daily fee rates, reimbursable expenses and total cost (inclusive of all taxes) to firstname.lastname@example.org and copy email@example.com by 14th September 2020. Please ensure to clearly state ‘Attribution Study -Tourism’ in the subject line. Only shortlisted candidate will be contacted.