Consultancy: Rapid Attribution Analysis – Food and Agriculture Sector

Consultancy: Rapid Attribution Analysis – Food and Agriculture Sector CONTEXT OF THE ASSIGNMENT As the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak continues to spread across the world, its impact on the global and national economies including the agriculture sector needs to be addressed from the perspective of both food supply and food demand. Ensuring the continued functioning of food supply chains is crucial during a pandemic to prevent food shortages and also ensure that the numerous Zambians remain employed given that 80% are within the agriculture sector. Preliminary results from Prospero’s interventions have shown that the agricultural sector is expected to show some level of resilience from a jobs perspective ,but those individuals that typically participate in the sector in the form of seasonal labour or those at the lower end of the supply chains will be affected by social distancing and other health and movement restrictions limiting their access to markets, services and other products. Disruption in the supply chain and employment of seasonal workers could lead to an overall decline in agriculture employment. Rural women and rural youth are likely to be more impacted as they are particularly exposed to socioeconomic vulnerability. In order to respond to the impact of COVID-19, Prospero conducted a stakeholder analysis and consultation to understand the impact of the pandemic on businesses and job sustainability. As a response, Prospero developed two grant facilities to assist organisations’ ability to respond to the effects of COVID-19 while sustaining jobs. The COVID-19 Goods and Services grant facility was open to any private sector or not-for-profit organisation that was able to rapidly develop the capacity to produce, provide and/or successfully distribute goods (e.g. personal protective equipment, affordable and nutritious food products, healthcare products, etc.) and/provide services (e.g. transport, logistics, information/education, biomedical or critical machinery maintenance, etc.) or generate and implement innovate ideas or technology in support of the national effort to combat or cope with COVID-19. The COVID-19 Small Business Resilience grant facility which was open to any private sector or not-for-profit organization focused on supporting business resilience through the COVID-19 crisis in terms of labour force productivity and essential working capital needs. The support provided by Prospero was aimed at making a significant contribution to job preservation and allow for the continued meaningful productivity of employees. Both grant facilities are short to medium term in nature and are rapidly being implemented to have near-immediate results and impact on grantees and their employees. Verified impact level data and projections based on agreed grant agreement and job targets indicate that Prospero’s partners have sustained and preserved numerous jobs. Prospero wishes to understand whether jobs preserved under the two grant facilities can be attributed to the support offered to partners. Prospero Zambia seeks to engage a consultant(s) to conduct a rapid attribution analysis to understand whether the reported results, particularly the jobs preserved are as a result of the support provided to grantees. The consultant is expected to use a quasi-experimental method of developing a counterfactual that could include using non-successful applicants as a comparison group. Prospero will seek to construct an evidence-based case for ‘plausible attribution’ to a degree that would convince a reasonable but sceptical observer. OBJECTIVES OF THE ASSIGNMENT The primary objectives of the assignment are to:** estimate the counterfactual (i.e., what would have happened in the absence of the intervention, compared to the observed situation). This addresses the question as to whether the Prospero grantees would have preserved jobs without support from Prospero. The counterfactual approach involves developing an estimate of what would have happened in the absence of an intervention, and comparing this to what has been observed in the presence of the intervention. This approach requires the use of a control group or comparison group, non-successful applicants or those that did not apply are possible comparison groups. assess whether and to what extent jobs would have been preserved without the intervention. For example, a business gaining access to the SBR grant facility may have remained operational and kept all staff regardless of the grant facility. SCOPE OF WORK The exact scope of work will include the following, among others: Undertaking a desk review of recently compiled studies and assessments of the impact of COVID-19 on jobs in the Agriculture sector. Review the causal pathway for the achievement of results and compare to the programme’s current theory of change and strategy. Estimate as much as possible Prospero’s and grantee’s contribution to observed result by quantifying the proportion of contribution (See Attribution-Contribution scale by Jennifer Cohen, Document the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on jobs in the Agriculture sector. Interview key Agriculture stakeholders including supermarkets, processors, aggregators and representatives of key government ministries and agencies. Assess the extent to which Prospero’s COVID-19 interventions have contributed to the preservation of jobs. Document how jobs that have been preserved looked like before and after the intervention. Find out if employees are doing the same jobs, or if they have changed due to restructuring during the pandemic. Analyze the quality and nature of the jobs, i.e. whether players in the supply chain moved jobs to MSME. Assess and estimate the counterfactual to determine what would have happened had Prospero not provided grants. Highlight the job safeguarding measure and COVID-19 coping measure that have been implanted by businesses in the Agriculture sectors. DELIVERABLES Inception report and workplan Draft report Final study report REQUIRED/DESIRABLE EXPERIENCE Strong background in Economics, statistics or related analytical discipline. Knowledge of performance measurement and attribution calculation methodologies Demonstrated work experience as a research economist or policy analyst or an evaluator in a public or private sector organisation or donor-funded programme. Strong qualitative and quantitative analytical skills with the ability to draw reasonable inferences and quantify qualitative data where relevant Previous working experience conducting similar assessments. Familiarity of private sector development and its impact on job creation and sustainability Demonstrated experience in preparing and presenting analytical evidence in a compelling manner. How to apply PROPOSAL SUBMISSION GUIDELINES Please apply by emailing your CV(s) (not exceeding 3 pages) and a technical/financial proposal (5 pages maximum) outlining the methodology to be used, number of days input, daily fee rates, reimbursable expenses and total cost (inclusive of all taxes) to and copy by 14th September 2020. Please ensure to clearly state ‘Attribution Study -Food and Agriculture’ in the subject line. Only shortlisted candidate will be contacted.


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